Will Rick Rieder Be the Next Federal Reserve Chair?

As speculation heats up regarding the appointment of the next chair of the Federal Reserve, market predictions suggest that Rick Rieder, the fixed income chief at BlackRock, is emerging as a strong candidate to succeed Jerome Powell.

Who Is Rick Rieder, and Why Is He Favored?

Rick Rieder has gained significant attention in the forecasting markets, with analysts considering him the frontrunner to take the helm of the Federal Reserve. According to recent data from Kalshi, Rieder holds a 48% chance of being selected, positioning him ahead of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who sits at 31%[^1].

Despite the fluctuating sentiment—less than a week ago, Warsh was the favorable choice—Rieder’s profile aligns with President Trump’s economic vision. Notably, Trump recently described Rieder as “very impressive” during a CNBC interview at the World Economic Forum, indicating his potential favoritism[^1].

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What Challenges Might Rieder Face?

While Rieder may align with some of Trump's economic views, potential challenges exist. He has previously suggested that the Federal Reserve's key interest rate should be around 3%, which is marginally lower than the current rate yet still within a range that some officials deem unacceptable[^1]. Analysts caution that if loyalty remains a cornerstone for Trump’s selection process, Rieder could face questions surrounding his allegiance to the President, especially given his non-loyalist background[^1].

Furthermore, it is essential to consider that Rieder, much like Powell, does not possess a Ph.D. in economics but instead has a rich background in market analysis, which leads to concerns about his potential approach to Fed policy. This unique perspective might excite the market but also raises questions about his adherence to established economic frameworks[^1].

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How Will This Appointment Impact the Markets?

Financial markets are sure to react to this evolving narrative as they anticipate how Rieder’s leadership might influence U.S. monetary policy. He represents BlackRock, a company deeply integrated with federal monetary operations, which could foster a collaborative relationship with the Federal Reserve. His insight into managing a $2.5 trillion portfolio and his past collaboration where BlackRock assisted the Fed during the 2020 crisis could play well in the eyes of investors[^1].

Key Takeaways

• Market Predictions: Rick Rieder of BlackRock is currently viewed as the likely successor to Jerome Powell, with a 48% chance of appointment.
• Presidential Influence: Donald Trump's favourable comments on Rieder underscore potential political alignment, but concerns about loyalty may hinder his selection.
• Interest Rate Perspectives: Rieder’s suggested interest rate of 3% raises questions about whether he would meet Trump's expectations for economic management.
• Financial Market Impact: Rieder’s appointment could be well-received in the markets given his extensive experience in managing large investment portfolios and previous interactions with the Fed.
  

To see how this data impacts your investments, read our latest market analysis.

References

[^1]: Jeff Cox (2026-01-27). "The market thinks BlackRock's Rick Rieder will be the next Fed chair. Here's what's at stake (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/27/market-thinks-blackrocks-rieder-will-next-chair-the-fed-whats-at-stake.html)". CNBC. Retrieved 2026-01-27.

Keywords: Federal Reserve, Rick Rieder, Jerome Powell, BlackRock, economic policy, Trump administration, interest rates, financial markets.

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